No-deal fear pushes pound to a record low

Peter Hargreaves says Britain will get a free trade deal
Credit
Jay Williams

Peter Hargreaves says Britain will get a free trade deal Credit Jay Williams

Euro and pound banknotes are seen in front of BREXIT letters in this picture illustration taken April 28, 2017.

Sterling was down against the euro, dollar yen and Swiss franc, suggesting the negative sentiment was broad.

Sterling/dollar three-month implied volatility - a gauge of how volatile traders expect a currency to be - this week spiked to its highest since early March.

The Brexit related uncertainty has been voiced repeatedly over the course of past few days with the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney sending a warning signal to business and the financial markets on Friday last week saying that the uncertainty related to Brexit negotiations is "uncomfortably high" and the UK Trade minister Liam Fox said on Monday that a no-deal Brexit has a 60 percent chance of happening.

The news of no-deal Brexit weighs on Sterling sending it to the lowest level since August 31 a year ago and coupled with earlier comments of the outgoing Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Ian McCafferty who added to the no-deal Brexit fear in public debate together with dovish monetary policy outlook.

The pound traded up 0.1 percent to 89.865 pence per euro, above its recent 2018 lows of 90.30 pence.

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The pound also fell below US$1.29 for the first time since August 31 2017.

The Euro (EUR) has remained relatively stable recently, leaving its exchange rates at the mercy of developments overseas, and the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest economic bulletin this morning served to highlight the Eurozone's economic trajectory. Yesterday, the British pound sold off against the United States dollar for the sixth day in a row.

British Prime Minister Theresa May will discuss Brexit with the EU's 27 other leaders at an informal summit in Austria next month and meet with European Union leaders again in October to try to seal deals on the terms of Britain's withdrawal. The pound has lost more than 10 percent since April and is down nearly 15 percent since the Brexit Referendum in June 2016.

Barclays said Friday's GDP data showed that the British economy's second-quarter rebound only offset the first-quarter weakness.

Bearish pressure hangs over the GBP/USD, and as FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik noted, "the short-term picture continues favoring the downside, as the pair remained near its yearly low, while an intraday advance stalled at 1.2972, well below the 1.3000 figure". Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities.

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